The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released today the flash estimate of the price index of private residential property for 4th Quarter 2010.
Based on the estimated price index of private residential property, prices rose from 189.6 points in the 3rd Quarter 2010 to 194.8 points in the 4th Quarter 2010. This represents an increase of 2.7%, compared with 2.9% in the previous quarter (see Annex A). For the year 2010 as a whole, the price index has increased by 17.6%.
URA also released today the flash estimates of the price changes in the 3 geographical regions for 4th Quarter 2010. Prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 2.3% in Core Central Region, 1.7% in Rest of Central Region and 1.6% in Outside Central Region in the quarter (see Annex B). In comparison, for 3rd Quarter 2010, prices of non-landed private residential properties increased by 1.6% in Core Central Region, 2.3% in Rest of Central Region and 2.2% in Outside Central Region. For the year 2010 as a whole, prices increased by 14.3%, 17.5% and 14.5% in Core Central Region, Rest of Central Region and Outside Central Region respectively.
The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold. The statistics will be updated 4 weeks later when URA releases the full 4th Quarter 2010 real estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are captured. Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual price changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.
URA will continue to release relevant property market information in a timely manner to allow the public to make informed decisions. On the supply side, the statistics on private residential units in the pipeline, which were last released in October 2010, will be updated in the 4th Quarter 2010 Real Estate Statistics to be released on 28 January 2011.
via URA
Friday, January 7, 2011
Monday, January 3, 2011
Singapore property and bubbles
Is a bubble forming in Singapore property? That is the question CNBC asks Chris Fossick, MD of Jones Lang LaSalle South East Asia. The short answer: unlikely.
For those who are too lazy to watch the video to the end, a quick summary:
For those who are too lazy to watch the video to the end, a quick summary:
- Sale volumes are expected to go up because of population rise
- The strong economy will fuel demand
- The Govt is mainly concerned about mass market sector
- So far Singapore's transaction values are down 30%, so it is not worrying
- There is a lot of supply and unsold units, prices will not run away
- Developers are holding back high end units because they think that market is not as robust yet
- 'Prices need to be running away faster than they are now' for authorities to take action
- Suggests to increase the supply of land to influence the market
- It is difficult to come up with measures to temper demand
Sunday, December 19, 2010
The economics of investing in shoebox units
05:54 AM Dec 17, 2010
How do the economics stack up?
Per-square-foot prices and rentals generally go up when the sizes of the apartments go down. So in several recent launches, the one-bedroom units fetched, for example, $1,200 psf, while the three-bedroom units transacted at below $1,000 psf - a 20 per cent premium that arises because the smaller unit with a lower selling price quantum has a wider reach.
As for rentals, let's take a hypothetical example, say, in River Valley. A one-bedroom, 550-sq-ft unit may lease for $3,800 a month, a 900-sq-ft two-bedroom unit for $5,500, while a 1,200-sq-ft three-bedroom unit, $6,500. The rentals per square foot increase as the sizes of the apartments drop (see Table 1). However, up to a point, the equation fails to apply. In this example, a 350 sq ft studio unit in River Valley may, for example, be able to fetch about $2,800 per month of rental. However, that is near the limit of how high rentals can go for shoebox units. This unit is similar in size as the deluxe hotel rooms in River Valley area.
If we tried to push rentals beyond $3,000 per month (ie above $100 per day), it may be more economical for the tenant to take a long-term let with a hotel around River Valley, given the more flexible lease terms that include daily housekeeping, electricity, fully furnished/equipped rooms and probably complimentary laundry. He would also save on rental whenever he travels out of Singapore.
As for costs, if every single apartment in a development were shoebox sized units, their share values would be five for every apartment. The maintenance fees and sinking funds for the common areas and shared services would be equally borne by all the owners of the development.
However, if a project has some shoebox units mixed with larger sized two- to four-bedroom units, then the shoebox units will contribute proportionately higher maintenance fees and sinking funds.
Under current share value allocation rules - apartments of less than 50 sq m are allotted share value of five, larger apartments up to 100 sq m are allotted six and so on, increasing by one share for every additional 50 sq m of strata area.
The yields - net of maintenance fees and sinking funds - become narrower between shoebox units and their larger sized cousins. Should the economy weaken and vacancies run high, and normal two-bedrooms are available for rent at $3,000 to $4,000 per month, how would shoebox units stand up to price competition?
I wonder what new social challenges may prevail in the future for the developments that contain a wide mix of units. In developments where the $600,000 shoebox or one-bedroom units were bought by investors and $2 million four-bedroom units purchased by owner-occupiers, will the low-budget tenants from the shoebox units make good neighbours for the rest?
Will there be poor cousins in a rich compound just like I was a poor student living in a 120-sq-ft bedsit within the posh Kensington neighbourhood? In such a mixed development, will investor-landlords be willing to contribute that little extra to maintenance and sinking funds as compared to house-proud owner-occupiers? We'll have to observe as such heterogeneous projects, most still under construction today, become mature and fully occupied estates over the next five to 10 years.
From the list of about 130 projects that have shoebox units (see Table 2), it is interesting to note that the most common name used is "suites". This is merely terminology and not to be confused with hotel suites (which are generally bigger than shoebox units) nor with several luxury projects that do not have shoebox units, such as Marina Bay Suites, Paterson Suites and Nathan Suites.
In land scarce Singapore, space is a real luxury. While trying to improve the quality of life, we also need to maximise the use of every square foot of land. HDB blocks have risen up to 50 storeys. Shrinking apartment sizes is another way to satisfy the demand from more, and smaller, households. The proliferation of shoebox apartments should be an expected consequence of the steadily rising population density. Cramped spaces, anyone?
The writer is the founder of real estate agency International Property Advisor, which provides services to high-net-worth individuals.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Experts: Private property prices to rise next year
SINGAPORE : Private residential property prices are expected to rise between five and 12 per cent next year.
Analysts expect high-end properties to lead the price increase. They say prices in that segment still have room to grow because of the positive economic outlook for 2011.
Robust economic growth forecast of between four and six per cent next year and abundant liquidity are making analysts upbeat.
Karamjit Singh, managing director, Credo Real Estate, said: "The residential market is generally looking very strong, very bright. Having said that, within the various categories, we believe that the mid-prime and prime would do slightly better than the suburban market.
"We see more capital upside in mid-prime, prime. It's also that segment of the market that has not fully recovered from the all-time peak in 2007, where the suburban market has surpassed and we're now at historical highs.
"2010 can be considered as a recovery year, where we're recovering from an economic slump, from a very low base. So the pace of rise of values tends to be faster, quicker. I don't think it'll be repeated in 2011, unless there's an entirely new phenomena that re-prices the property values in general.
"So here we're talking about a more moderated pace of growth, backed by an overall sense of confidence."
Industry watchers expect prices in the luxury market to easily push past the S$2,500 per square foot mark.
Donald Han, vice chairman, Cushman & Wakefield, said: "I think the main reason is that Singapore continues to be a very attractive hub for a lot of wealth management centres.
"A lot of the investment banks are beginning to focus in bringing a lot of high net worth investors to park their money here. And as a result, I think some of these amounts will continue to trickle into real estate, and predominantly residential is usually the first stop for some of these investors.
"In addition to that, I think the market has started to see rental increases over in 2010 - rents have gone up by as much as 13 per cent on a per annum basis - and by virtue of the lack of new supply completed in 2011.
"In fact, the number is close to about 6,700 units in 2011, versus an average last 10-year trend-line of 9,700, that is, 30 per cent short of completion. We'll see a continued increase for rental apartments, and this should be able to push up rentals by at least another 10-15 per cent in 2011."
Observers expect between 10,000 and 13,000 new private home units to be sold in 2011. In the first 10 months of 2010, over 13,100 private units were sold.
Another segment to watch in 2011 is the enbloc sales market. In 2010, small and mid-sized collective sales, priced below S$50 million, proved to be most successful.
Mr Han said: "I think the momentum will carry on... The borders ... will start to be tested. We're beginning to test now and launching projects which are more than $200 million to as much as half a billion.
"And a lot depends on the state of the market for the residential project marketing. I think moving forward, the market for project marketing will continue to do well. As a result, developers will start to ... want to land-bank into the private land supply.
"One of the supplies would be through collective enbloc sales, so continued good performance for collective enbloc. In 2010, we'd probably hit close to $1.5 billion in terms of total sales. We expect this number to double nearer to about $3 billion for 2011."
For now, observers generally do not expect the government to introduce any additional property cooling measures, at least within the first half of 2011.
But if there is any indication of prices becoming unsustainable, it will be seen either in February or March. Industry watchers say some of the risk factors that could affect the positive private property sector performance here include increased interest rates and higher inflation.
- CNA
** I certainly hope the property market will continue to do well in the years to come! I need some pocket money!
Analysts expect high-end properties to lead the price increase. They say prices in that segment still have room to grow because of the positive economic outlook for 2011.
Robust economic growth forecast of between four and six per cent next year and abundant liquidity are making analysts upbeat.
Karamjit Singh, managing director, Credo Real Estate, said: "The residential market is generally looking very strong, very bright. Having said that, within the various categories, we believe that the mid-prime and prime would do slightly better than the suburban market.
"We see more capital upside in mid-prime, prime. It's also that segment of the market that has not fully recovered from the all-time peak in 2007, where the suburban market has surpassed and we're now at historical highs.
"2010 can be considered as a recovery year, where we're recovering from an economic slump, from a very low base. So the pace of rise of values tends to be faster, quicker. I don't think it'll be repeated in 2011, unless there's an entirely new phenomena that re-prices the property values in general.
"So here we're talking about a more moderated pace of growth, backed by an overall sense of confidence."
Industry watchers expect prices in the luxury market to easily push past the S$2,500 per square foot mark.
Donald Han, vice chairman, Cushman & Wakefield, said: "I think the main reason is that Singapore continues to be a very attractive hub for a lot of wealth management centres.
"A lot of the investment banks are beginning to focus in bringing a lot of high net worth investors to park their money here. And as a result, I think some of these amounts will continue to trickle into real estate, and predominantly residential is usually the first stop for some of these investors.
"In addition to that, I think the market has started to see rental increases over in 2010 - rents have gone up by as much as 13 per cent on a per annum basis - and by virtue of the lack of new supply completed in 2011.
"In fact, the number is close to about 6,700 units in 2011, versus an average last 10-year trend-line of 9,700, that is, 30 per cent short of completion. We'll see a continued increase for rental apartments, and this should be able to push up rentals by at least another 10-15 per cent in 2011."
Observers expect between 10,000 and 13,000 new private home units to be sold in 2011. In the first 10 months of 2010, over 13,100 private units were sold.
Another segment to watch in 2011 is the enbloc sales market. In 2010, small and mid-sized collective sales, priced below S$50 million, proved to be most successful.
Mr Han said: "I think the momentum will carry on... The borders ... will start to be tested. We're beginning to test now and launching projects which are more than $200 million to as much as half a billion.
"And a lot depends on the state of the market for the residential project marketing. I think moving forward, the market for project marketing will continue to do well. As a result, developers will start to ... want to land-bank into the private land supply.
"One of the supplies would be through collective enbloc sales, so continued good performance for collective enbloc. In 2010, we'd probably hit close to $1.5 billion in terms of total sales. We expect this number to double nearer to about $3 billion for 2011."
For now, observers generally do not expect the government to introduce any additional property cooling measures, at least within the first half of 2011.
But if there is any indication of prices becoming unsustainable, it will be seen either in February or March. Industry watchers say some of the risk factors that could affect the positive private property sector performance here include increased interest rates and higher inflation.
- CNA
** I certainly hope the property market will continue to do well in the years to come! I need some pocket money!
Spottiswoode 18
Developer : RL Developments Pte Ltd (Roxy)
Description : 36 Storey Residential with 1 basement & 4 storey multiple carpark
2 sky terrace (14 & 24th floor)
Swimming Pool & facilities on ground floor & 5th floor
Tennis @ ground floor
Total units : 251
TOP : 31 Dec 2015
Legal TOP : 31 Dec 2018
Site area : 43,382sf
Plot ratio : 2.8
Carpk : 251 lots (1 level basement, 1-4flr)
Lift : 3
1brm : 368 - 387 sqft (no bay window)
1+1 : 510 sqft
2brm : 655 sqft
RT : 495 - 1444 sqft
DP : 649 - 1100 sqft
PH : 1230 - 1921 sqft
Estimated average $2000 psf!
Monday, November 22, 2010
Space @ Kovan
Project: Space @ Kovan
Address: 9 Yio Chu Kang Road (District 9)
Tenure: Freehold
Developer: Roxy Lang Pte Ltd
TOP: Estimated Dec 2014
Unit Profile: 140 residential units (117 typical + 23 penthouses) &
53 commercial units in a 5 storey single block
Unit Type: 1 bedroom 388 – 431 sqft 40 units
1+ S bedroom 549 – 570 sqft 12 units
2 bedroom 581 – 689 sqft 44 units
2+S bedroom 743 – 745 sqft 12 units
3 bedroom 893 sqft 3 units
3+ PES bedroom 990 – 1033 sqft 6 units
PH 2 bedroom 818 – 1098 sqft 7 units
PH 2+S bedroom 1152 – 1324 sqft 6 units
PH 2+F bedroom 1087 – 1227 sqft 2 units
PH 2+S+F bedroom 1227 sqft 1 unit
PH 3 bedroom 1184 – 1475 sqft 5 units
PH 3+S bedroom 1582 sqft 1 unit
PH 2+S+F bedroom 1270 sqft 1 unit
Shops 270 – 1300 sqft 56 units
Facilities: Swimming Pool
Water Jet Corner
Pool Deck
Wading Pool
BBQ area
Function Room
Gymnasium
Changing Room and Toilet
Amenities nearby: upcoming NEX Mega Mall, St Gabriel’s Pri Sch, Yangzheng Pri Sch,
Heartland Mall, Serangoon Garden, Australian International School, French International Sch, Sport Complex. Plenty of supermarkets, eating places, schools etc. to go around
Easy access to CTE which will take you to everywhere else on this island!
Monday, November 15, 2010
1,587 new private homes sold in October
Latest reports from the URA are in. October 2010 saw a total of 1,587 new private homes sold. Last month’s total sales were a modest 911 units, a difference of 676 units. However, October's figure includes Executive Condo (EC) units. If you take it out, only 1,058 units were sold.
Where’s the effect of the cooling measures? Well, we could attribute the boost of sales to the 2 ECs launched (The Canopy and Esparina) as there is a demand for low-cost private housing. Yet, as mentioned earlier, if we take the ECs out of the equation, 1,058 units is 147 more than 911 of last month.
The periods of Oct-Dec are usually considered lull periods but the sales in October did pretty well. Maybe the next caveat for November will reflect something different, or perhaps like we said last month, we’d have to wait till January to see the extent of the measures. But honestly, how many of you see that happening?
Where’s the effect of the cooling measures? Well, we could attribute the boost of sales to the 2 ECs launched (The Canopy and Esparina) as there is a demand for low-cost private housing. Yet, as mentioned earlier, if we take the ECs out of the equation, 1,058 units is 147 more than 911 of last month.
The periods of Oct-Dec are usually considered lull periods but the sales in October did pretty well. Maybe the next caveat for November will reflect something different, or perhaps like we said last month, we’d have to wait till January to see the extent of the measures. But honestly, how many of you see that happening?
Look at Lakefront Residences - almost 80% sold! What is going on? Are these measures working or not?
Anyway, here are the top 3 condos with most units sold:
Esparina Residences, 425 units sold (median $761 psf)
The Glyndebourne, 112 units sold (median $2,149 psf)
The Canopy, 104 units sold (median $685 psf)
The top 3 condos with most expensive units sold:
Boulevard Vue at Cuscaden Walk, median $4,800 psf
Marina Bay Suites at Marina Boulevard, median $3,328 psf
Paterson Suites at paterson Road/Lengkong Angsa, median $3,133 psf
Esparina Residences, 425 units sold (median $761 psf)
The Glyndebourne, 112 units sold (median $2,149 psf)
The Canopy, 104 units sold (median $685 psf)
The top 3 condos with most expensive units sold:
Boulevard Vue at Cuscaden Walk, median $4,800 psf
Marina Bay Suites at Marina Boulevard, median $3,328 psf
Paterson Suites at paterson Road/Lengkong Angsa, median $3,133 psf
I don't think the cooling measures are that effective but hey... it probably did remove some of the risky speculators from the areana.
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